Could Brexit have happened by chance?

Posted on Fri 08 July 2016 in computation • Tagged with python, voting, statistics, computation, fft

As a scientist, watching the Brexit vote was a little bit painful. Though probably not for the reason you're thinking. No, it wasn't the politics that bothered me, but the method for making such an incredibly important decision. Let me explain...

Scientists are a bit obsessed with the concept of error. In the context of collecting data and anaylzing it, this takes the form of our "confidence" in the results. If all the data say the same thing, then we are usually pretty confident in the overall message. If the data is more complicated than this (and it always is), then we need to define how confident
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